2026 Outlooks And Forecasts

Fiscal and monetary easing combined with less policy uncertainty in the U.S. are going to boost business sentiment and help closing the gap between strong growth and a still soft labor market. First, on monetary policy, we are approaching the end of the rate normalization journey across developed market. That means that EM central banks will not be able to cut as broadly as they have in the last few years, so we have to position for more differentiation around central banks, uh, in rate markets. So, I would say in either direction, material deviation from our macro baseline potentially poses risks for spreads.

• And we’ve tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI.
• The policy shocks of 2025 may have tested the system, but they also accelerated deeper shifts in technology, growth dynamics, and global capital flows.
• The 2026 global M&A landscape will be defined by strategic repositioning and building for scale.
• In the event of an eventual credit cycle, strong origination pipelines, experience through credit cycles and scaled platforms should differentiate GP performance,” said James Reynolds, Global Co-Head of Private Credit at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
• To kick things off, we’ll hear from Bruce Kasman, our chief global economist.
• Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially.

Chart 7: Gold Reserves From Emerging Markets Are Well Below Those From Advanced Economies

In private equity, more investors are using secondaries for liquidity and portfolio management, and we’re seeing attractive opportunities in both growth equity and co-investments. As data transparency and accessibility grow, private markets are evolving – placing them in a less binary relationship with public markets into something more like a continuum – a more liquid, integrated ecosystem within whole portfolios. As the world’s capital seeks resilience in a changing global economy, private markets hold the key to many pressing challenges and opportunities.

Japan

• The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns.
• By pairing disciplined underwriting with active asset management, we are positioning high-quality assets to outperform in the next phase of the cycle.”
• The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up.
• Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases.
• Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
• Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties.

“The structural drags for GBP are not going away, and this is why we’re taking more of a tactical buy-the-dip approach rather than turning more strategically bullish,” explained James Nelligan, an FX strategist at J.P. “Our dollar view for 2026 is net bearish, albeit smaller in magnitude and less uniform in breadth than in 2025,” said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. “We project Treasury yields will remain range-bound over the next few months, before rebounding moderately once the Fed goes on hold in the spring,” said Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P.

• Private credit is not just a strategy; it’s a burgeoning ecosystem of $1.9 trillion assets and growing to meet the evolving needs of investors and borrowers.
• Fiscal stimulus is government actions aimed at boosting economic activity, typically through increased spending or reduced taxes.
• Inflation pressures have eased, and investor focus has turned to the fiscal outlook across developed markets.
• GSAM BV is authorised and regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten, Vijzelgracht 50, 1017 HS Amsterdam, The Netherlands) as an alternative investment fund manager (“AIFM”) as well as a manager of undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (“UCITS”).
• As we look forward to the upcoming year, we believe that unbalanced positioning and high prices create a fragile market equilibrium.

Consider Overseas Equities

We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves.

Explore Infrastructure Strategies

Our interpretation is that the European Central Bank and Bank of England have successfully unwound the delivered quantitative loosening from their pandemic-related asset purchases whereas the Fed and Bank of Japan have de facto delayed a balance sheet normalization. In the month of December 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) managed to both end its second Quantitative Tightening program (QT2) and also quickly initiate a new set of asset purchases. As we look forward to the upcoming year, we believe that unbalanced positioning and high prices create a fragile market equilibrium.

This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Despite the plausibility of a bearish scenario, it is likely that investors will maintain some exposure to gold given the unpredictability of current geoeconomic dynamics. Moreover, gold investment, which has been critical to this year’s performance, still has room to grow.

Broadening Leadership Across Public And Private Markets

Starting with our clients’ needs – we offer more options across public and private investments to help them meet their goals. Private assets are becoming a key component of a whole-portfolio strategy for more clients. As 2026 brings on a new cycle, investors are adjusting to a fundamentally transformed commercial real estate market. We believe that we stand at the threshold of a “golden age” of private infrastructure investing

About Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal, or environmental factors that affect property values, rents, or occupancies of real estate. Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing. Fiscal stimulus is government actions aimed at boosting economic activity, typically through increased spending or reduced taxes.

Japan: Fiscal Support, Inflation May Lift Nominal Growth

Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Different investment styles (e.g., “growth” and “value”) tend to shift in and out of smartytrade review favor, and, at times, the strategy may underperform other strategies that invest in similar asset classes. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. The risk is that international stocks could face headwinds if economic and earnings growth fail to materialize or the dollar strengthens.

• Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal, or environmental factors that affect property values, rents, or occupancies of real estate.
• Here, as we mentioned before, in the U.S. portfolio, we are staying constructive on the AI team and the overweight large caps versus small caps as well as the growth versus, uh, value style.
• The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
• While GDP growth has been resilient through 2025, imbalances have formed as demand has rotated toward tech capex and job gains have stalled.
• International investing involves special risks including, but not limited to currency fluctuations, illiquidity and volatility.
• Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves.

Despite this, the combination of higher opportunity costs, risk-on sentiment, and negative price momentum could create challenging conditions for gold, reinforcing this as the most bearish scenario in our outlook. Their magnitude would be a function of the reduction in gold’s risk-induced premium, which has been a mainstay since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gold ETF holdings could see sustained outflows as investors rotate into equities and higher-yielding assets. Rising yields, a stronger dollar, and the shift toward risk-on positioning weigh heavily on gold, prompting a notable withdrawal of investor interest. Improving economic sentiment would also fuel a broad risk-on rotation.

As a result, AI bullishness in China could continue even if a slowdown in AI capex growth occurs in the U.S. Optimism about AI advances and adoption in China, and the performance of AI-related companies in Korea and Taiwan that have large weights in the MSCI EM Index. Sectors are based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®), an industry analysis framework developed by MSCI and S&P Dow Jones Indices to provide investors with consistent industry definitions.